Blogs will Rule 2008

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My big prediction for 2008: blogs rule. Blogs will grow tremendously in the categories of:

Political
News
Business
Mobile
Video

Political

In 2007, we saw a noticeable increase in the power of blogs and social/new media as they now play a more important role in American politics. I think 2008 is when web and grass-roots campaigns are going to really start fighting dirty online. We’re going to see some wicked fallout from fraud after this election, because I don’t think the American people can hardly take any more crap. Everybody’s going to be analyzing Ron Paul’s campaign in 2008 even more than they did Howard Dean’s presidential run back in 2004 (I’m not endorsing any candidate or talking about politics other than how it relates to blogging).

Stories about net neutrality, government censorship and oppression (not only of the internet but also in general), election fraud, erosions of civil liberties and human rights both at home and abroad will fuel the power of blogs and boost blogging even more into the mainstream than it is now (and it’s already come a long way).

In politics, 2004 was really the start of this, with Dean’s… ah… “screamin’” campaign (sorry, couldn’t resist!) but I think from 2008 and up until the next election in 2012, we’re going to see this category really experience extraordinary growth. I think 2008 will be a year marked by this.

News

The face of news evolved rapidly in 2007, and will continue as 2008 becomes harder than ever for newspapers and better than ever for citizen journalism and the largest of media conglomerates.

Professional journalists need to adapt to the new blogging-style methods of audience engagement, or risk poverty and irrelevance as old-style news organizations continue to decline. Bloggers and citizen journalists will benefit greatly from applying journalistic methods and processes to their blog’s content, but they need to stop looking down their noses at mainstream media and knock off the blog snobbery. Both groups have much to teach each other.

The availability of uncensored, violent video of police brutality cases, riots, demonstrations, conflict, crime, and act of terrorism will incense and polarize people in greater numbers for 2008 than ever before. This will be fueled by the rise of video and mobile blogging (which I’ll get to as their own subjects in just a minute, but business is next).

Business

Some see something of a decline in personal blogs and a shift towards social ~~time wasters~~ media networks like Facebook and StumbleUpon. To suggest this means a decline in blogging generally is to fail to see the bigger picture.

Business blogs will grow in 2008. You will see your fair share of big lumbering businesses do it wrong and fail, but you will also see a big surge in small businesses and startups doing it right. Nearly every tech startup has a blog. For more and more new businesses that are just starting, the web is an important component of the business. That means that engaging people online is important. And that means blogs will rule in business for 2008.

Mobile

Mobile blogging will be hot for 2008. The technology is getting us to the point where this is becoming easier and worthwhile. In 2008 you will see more laptops, more BlackBerries, more SmartPhones, and more mobile recording/editing gear. On the services side, you will see more online applications for creating, editing, managing, and spreading mobile content–including our next and last item below, video.

Video

Video blogging will be bigger in 2008 because of all the previous points above. Mobile video services like Qik and Seesmic are only the beginning. YouTube will see more content created via mobile devices. Video blogging will intersect with the mobile, political, and news spaces for emergent and unpredictable results–except that I predict there will be some game-changing stuff this year that everybody on the net will know about, and everybody watching televised news won’t have a clue about. Something that will start a new trend, like how the previous Hollywood writers’ strike birthed the reality television trend.

Are You Ready to Rule in 2008?

So, in 2008 is your blog gonna rule… or drool? The signs of the times are there for those who see them: continuing evolution of political and news content; tons more business blogs; and, finally, a surge and intersection of video and mobile content. I’m not saying anything earth-shattering, here. To me this is obvious stuff, but I know it isn’t to everyone and not everybody thinks about this stuff. If you’ve been blogging with your head down, nose to the monitor, you might want to lift your head up and look around. Don’t allow yourself to get stuck in the recent past, because before you know it, the recent past becomes the ancient past on the internet.

What’s your strategy for taking advantage of these growth trends?

Michael Martine

@Stacie: thanks very much for your "too long" of a response! I was surprised to hear the other day two stories: one, a blogger was complaining that his post was entirely ripped off by a lazy news reporter with no credit given, and two, that journalists are using blogs more and more to "get ideas" (perhaps like how that journalist in the first story "got" an idea). With stuff like that happening, it seems like any peace or dialog between bloggers and MSM journalists will be pretty hard-won. :(
Stacie

Although I'm apparently a "communist" journalist, I agree with the others that you have a lot of good to say here. :)

The news (I'm talking newspapers here, because I don't know much about TV/radio) is obviously in a state of flux while organizations try to deal with the Internet issues and the competition of 24-hour news. Many journalists and scholars are putting forth the ideas that without newspapers becoming a hybrid of online/print, there are going to be problems, especially with mid-size dailies. Those newspapers that feed off of national ads will have a hard time competing with the Internet, while those small-town newspapers that feed off of local ads might have an easier time dealing with Internet competition. Regardless, newspapers also need to do something to reach the younger citizens who are not reading, and who are not starting to read as they get older, which newspapers once counted on. To do so, interactivity and blogs can be an answer.

Newspapers are already trying to figure out ways to incorporate blogs into their structures and dealing with the ethical/legal issues that the structure of blogs pose to newspapers. It's pretty interesting to see the efforts that newspapers have so far come up with in terms of blogs. I definitely agree that both methods have much to learn from each other! (Especially in the areas of reporting -- the studies still find that most bloggers don't do their own reporting, but engage mostly in hyperlinking while adding their own viewpoint and ideas. While it's unrealistic to say that every political blogger, for example, needs to be a present reporter, those bloggers may also benefit from the independence of their own reporting enhanced by hyperlinking... just a thought.)

And that's entirely too long of a response. I did some research in this area last semester for a research proposal. It is extremely interesting. :)

~Stacie
Michael Martine

@Mark: Great points! Yes, and last October I made a video post about the differences between blogs and "normal" websites that I think you might find interesting: Business Blogs vs. Normal Websites.
Mark Dowling

I agree with you Michael, and interestingly just a few minutes ago read a great post on the same issue on Conrad Hees' blog.

My focus is business, and I see the blog - as a website format/ process/ methodology - whipping the traditional online brochureware crap we suffer with now. And this means a totally different approach to how a business presents itself online. Goodbye crafted marketing bullshit, hello reality, this will define who has a successful online presence.
Christine O'Kelly

Yes! And obviously the parties realize this! I just happened to watch the republican debate thing (I really don't enjoy watching politics) and was surprised to see that they incorporated questions from the public by way of YouTube. Crazy... I was surprised that they even knew what YouTube was! What was hilarious was that all of the candidates were asked to make a YouTube video. Judging by those videos... I'd say they have a LOT to learn about leveraging social media!
Pierre Soderman

@Martin:I agree but bloggers/anybody will get paid in fame of having his story published. Im talking about thousand of people connected to a news network wich publish their story on a website, of course mobile friendly.
Michael Martine

@Pierre: The difference between journalists and bloggers is that journalists are paid, and bloggers often are not. Journalists travel to the story and cover it, and bloggers tend to just pontificate from behind their monitors. A news organization of any type still has to pay its workers and make a profit. Newspapers don't make enough money anymore to really stay in business, but television news seems to be fine. Instead of a CNN we need an INN.
Pierre Soderman

@Martin: What about starting a network of reporters all over the world and let them send in stories and the have a couple of editors who publish the stories that are worth telling to the world. If a reporters video got published the get some money from the sponsors of this gigantic network. The would knock out most of the serious news broadcasters :)
Conrad Hees

Great post Michael!

It is always interesting to see your predictions; I believe that we will see several of these things come to fruition this year.

I for one definitely plan on starting to video post in the near future....it is only evolution that video-blogging becomes much bigger this year. The 'early-adopters' will benefit the most.

Keep up the good work!
@Stephen

Fox news is really the "least bad" of the news services. They all play to the lowest common denominator. They all go for the scandal and the blood in the water. I am no Journalism student (good!)but I am not sure that journalists ever didn't have an agenda to push.

And my point was that while many bloggers do have an agenda, they generally make it known. So when a blogger of any political stripe pushes out some bad or phony information (paging Dan Rather) he or she gets called on it. Fast. So the post/story gets updated and corrected and the story grows. More people participate in the process and the truth gets set free.

The MSM is of the opinion that more people get their news from blogs than probably should, and that they, in their role as gatekeeper and arbiter of "truth", should decide what is news and what is not.

The people will vote with their feet, and go where they are wanted, where their needs are served.

One last point, I suspect that this current writer's strike will lead to a handful of bloggers getting tapped to replace the writer's union as a creative source. There are some very talented people out there, sitting at the laptop in their pajamas.
Michael Martine

@Pierre: I think this will change the face of reporting. "Live on the scene" with a cell phone and an internet video streaming service. Who needs CNN?
Michael Martine

@Stephen: yeah, just like that bullshit communist Fox News! :) (sorry, couldn't resist!) You raise some good points.
@Stephen | Productiv

Yes, Yes, YES!!! You are the very first one I have seen who agrees with me. This "blog" thing is going to really take off and evolve into something that, in two or three years we won't even recognize. When the kids who have grown up coding on MySpace get into college, look for an explosion in blogging and the obliteration of privacy as we know it.

I foresee landmark civil rights cases in the supreme court over the next few years, as well as the total annihilation of what we know as the 'journalism' profession.
The subtle camouflage of the biased "reporter" will be replaced by the overt, and transparent, bias of the blogger. Look how many blogs have, proudly in their headers - "I am a ____-wing and proud of it!!" How can 'traditional' journalists compete with those that wear their colors on their sleeves. When the traditional journalists are playing at being objective, while (usually) promoting some bullshit Communist agenda.

I say good riddance to bad rubbish. Let journalism die, meet the new boss, different from the old boss.
Pierre Soderman

I think mobile blogging is exciting, you can do quick and dirty so to say. Right at the spot when you come up with something clever to say.